Election

[owl]

Wonder how a Con/Lib coalition will work. Or not. Hope that NI's public spending doesn't suffer too badly.
Most interesting things in NI were Belfast East (goodbye, Robinson) and Fermanagh South Tyrone (Four votes. Four!)

Comments

[aella_irene]

Hopefully not.

[marymac]

Odds on Fermanagh South Tyrone going to the High Court again?

I can't see how a Con/Lib coalition works. It sort of relies on them both having a much more united party than they actualy have.
I mean, the concessions required on Clegg's part are going to burn the LibDems credibility, and the concessions required on Cameron's could lead to a Tory split on the scale of the Great Reform Act.

[tree_and_leaf]

I don't see a Con/ Lib coalition working for longer than might be necessary to get a Queen's speech and electoral reform through, followed by a new election. And if Clegg settles for "a commission of inquiry" into the matter, he's a fool.

I do wonder if we won't actually get a minority Lab/ Lib coalition propped up long enough for PR by SNP (those numbers would work, just). I'd much prefer that...

[owl]

The SLDP 3 would most likely go in with a LabLib coalition as well. We were trying to work out numbers yesterday afternoon in work. Either way, looks like we're in for another election pretty soon; neither possible coalition is what you can call stable.

[owl]

High, unless they reckon that another election is imminent anyway.

I can't see the ConLib coalition holding together for very long. Clegg would be an idiot if he doesn't get electoral reform out of this. It's the best position the Lib Dems have ever been in.

[marymac]

I'm wondering if Clegg is going to hold out on Cameron long enough to get Brown making major concessions. That's what I'd be doing. I'd be holding out to get Cable into the Treasury at the very least, and preferably a set date for a decision for PR.

I'm also awed that Cameron actually thinks he can put together a government. He can't do anything with Scotland, Plaid Cymru have already said they won't work with him, and he threw away 18 seats here, which he totally can't afford. And given that his party is more schismatic than the Reformation Church ... yeah, he hasn't thought this through.

[owl]

I know that the Westminster government probably wishes NI would float off into the Atlantic, but Cameron made it blatantly clear last week -- and it wasn't as if he was polling so well that he could do without the Unionists, either.

Now I'm starting to wonder what PR will look like for NI (and the SNP and Plaid Cymru). They're in opposite position to the Lib Dems, support concentrated in a few seats and non-existent elsewhere.

[marymac]

I would once have said it'd work wonders for the SDLP and UUP, but to be honest, the SDLP would have to get their arses in gear and the UUP. Um. I'm not sure how the UUP can salvage themselves at this point, short of knifing Cameron.

Alliance, on the other hand, could well make hay, if Long can can make an impression in Parliament and they can carry through in the next Assembley election. And if someone would put Ian Parsely out of everyone's misery.

[owl]

The UUP might as well shut up shop -- they don't offer anything the DUP doesn't any more, and why anyone thought getting into bed with the Conservatives was a good move...

I would be a bit worried about the more 'traditional' voters for SF and the DUP starting to feel disenfranchised and making their feelings known in the usual manner. Unless Stormont or the Parades Commission or something continues to provide suitable distraction and opportunities for throwing temper tantrums.

[owl]

The public sector is NI's biggest employer at something like 65%, so a cut in public spending would hit them harder than anywhere else. (From my point of view, the NI economy seems to consist solely of public sector, small rural businesses, inter/national retail and banking chains, and software shops mostly doing offshore work for American firms.

[marymac]

Personally, I feel anyone who votes Sinn Fein and then complains about disenfranchisement needs to grow a brain. And the hardliners are blowing stuf up already anyway, so nothing changes.

Well, the TUV got hammered, so goodness knows what happens there next.

But we're already surviving fairly well under PR as it is, I think as long as the Assembley don't decide to have another hissy (at which point I think whoever has the hissy gets their seats taken away and given to people who are not three rather than suspending everything) and throw the toys out of the pram, Parliamentary PR won't make much of a change. Fermanagh South Tyrone went to the fourth count and nobody died, it might work.

[owl]

They might be pig-headed reactionary non-sitting MPs, but they're our pig-headed reactionary non-sitting MPs, tiocfaidh ar la! (can't be bothered with the fadas)

I think people were happy enough to vote TUV for the Assembly, but as far as Westminster was concerned it was a wasted vote. Although I don't think I remember so much unionist apathy as I've seen at home this time (Lagan Valley, not that Donaldson was going anywhere anyway).

Yes, Stormont politics would definitely be improved by introduction of the naughty step. Hung parliament? At least Westminster doesn't screech to a halt every time someone decides to stamp on their toys and go home.

[marymac]

Exactly.

Honestly, of the many, many reasons I loathe Tony Blair and all his works, his pandering to Sinn Fein and the DUP I loathe the most. I mean seriously, if his children behaved like that they'd've met themselves coming the other way, why did he let grown men away with it? Best thing would have been to smile, nod and carry on without them and see how fast they came running back. Ugh.

[owl]

He was probably scared of the IRA starting to bomb London again. NI can tear itself apart, but we can't have bombs on the mainland. Although frankly blowing up Canary Wharf again could hardly have made more of a mess of the economy than they managed all their little selves.

[marymac]

See, before Omagh, yes. After that, Adams couldn't afford to risk even looking like they might and everyone knew it. London and Dublin had the best chance they ever had for forcing civil discourse on this place and they dropped the ball mightily.

This may be the only time you ever see me agree with Reg Empey...

[miss-celestine.livejournal.com]

Honestly, I'm pretty shocked they're even talking about it. I thought the Lib Dems were supposed to be more to the left than the Labour Party... or is my knowledge of British politics that bad??

[rosathome.livejournal.com]

The LibDem leader said during the campaign that it would be for the party with majority votes/seats to have the first bite of the cherry. So he is keeping his word. And there are things where the LibDems and the Conservatives agree against Labour. LibDems are not economically as leftwing as Labour and they are very strong on protecting the civil liberties that Labour seem determined to erode. It's always more complicated.

[ankaret.livejournal.com]

What all of this has proved to me is that I know nothing at all about the Northern Irish parties and that this is shameful. (I mean, I could probably pick Ian Paisley senior out of a police lineup, but that's about it and I'm not even sure if he's still alive). Google mostly seems to be giving me long summaries of the Troubles. I'm sorry to be all 'Hi, please take time out from your busy lifestyle to educate me' but can you point me at a simple-ish explanation of how things are at present?

[nineveh-uk.livejournal.com]

Given that there are - as I understand it - no Lib Dem-linked parties in N. Ireland, my assumption is that the party would seek to protect Scotland and to rather less extent Wales, and through Northern Ireland to the wolves.

[owl]

The Alliance Party would be liberal-aligned, but seeing as they've only got their first MP this time around they wouldn't have much clout.
SDLP would go in with the LabLib coalition, but I don't know what they'll do with a ConLib.

[owl]

The Lib Dems have moved to the right lately, and it's more on the liberal/authoritarian axis than the left/right axis that they're any different from the other two.

[owl]

I couldn't find a simple explanation on the net either. It seems you're expected to either already know, or to not care.

The DUP are still the largest party (and Paisley senior is still alive, though retired), although they have lost some credibility due to co-operation with Sinn Fein in Stormont, and due to various dodgy deals with property developers on the part of several party members.

The minority unionist parties are the Tradition Unionist Voice (basically same position as the DUP were 10 or 15 years ago, we will not sit in government with terrorists), and the Ulster Unionists, who have made their link with the Tories explicit by rebranding themselves as Ulster Conservatives and Unionists - New Force for this election.

Both of them did badly, the UCUNF (sounds like a pig grunting) losing their last seat to an independent Unionist (Lady Sylvia Hermon, the incumbent, quit the party when they joined the Conservatives, and was re-elected as an independent).

Sinn Fein and the SDLP split the Nationalist vote five to three, assuming that Gildernew keeps the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat, which she won from another independent Unionist with four votes. After three recounts, and the Unionists are saying that there were more ballots counted than were actually distributed.

The Belfast East seat has just been won by Naomi Long of the Alliance Party, the only non-sectarian one. It had been held for thirty years by Peter Robinson, who is now the leader of the DUP and the First Minister. I imagine that recent scandals of buying bits of land for £5 and his wife (just stood down as MP for Strangford, the neighbouring constituency) having an affair with a 19-year-old, had a lot to do with this.

So we've got DUP: 8
Sinn Fein: 5 (assuming FST doesn't go to the High Court)
SDLP: 3
Alliance: 1
Independent: 1 (assuming FST doesn't go to the High Court)

[ankaret.livejournal.com]

Thank you! So that was what was going on with Lady Sylvia Hermon - I saw her elected but thought she had become an Independent due to the expenses scandal or something.

This makes things a lot clearer!